The Cincinnati Bengals host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 14 odds of NFL action on Sunday. The Bengals are 6-6 and will look to keep pursuing a playoff spot despite the loss of superstar quarterback Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, the Colts are 7-5 and just one game behind the banged-up Jaguars for first place in the AFC South.
NFL odds for this contest have flipped, with the Colts opening as 1.5-point road faves before jumping the fence to favor the Bengals at -2. Here are my best free NFL picks for Colts vs. Bengals on December 10.
Colts vs Bengals odds
Colts vs Bengals predictions
I’ve been on the Michael Pittman Jr. prop train all season and it’s been paying off. The Indianapolis Colts wide receiver is tied for second in the league in targets (127) while sitting fourth in receptions (87). Pittman has snagged at least eight catches in each of his last five games and he’s coming off a season-high 11 receptions on 16 targets against the Titans last week.
Expect Pittman to have plenty of success against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 31st in the league in dropback success rate and surrenders 254.3 passing yards per game. Despite having subpar outside corners, the Bengals play man at the 10th highest rate in the league and Pittman boasts an elite 29.5% target share against man coverage.
I was initially tempted to play the Over 73.5 on Pittman’s receiving yards total, but considering the high winds we could see in Cincinnati on Sunday, it makes more sense to take his receptions prop since downfield passing won’t be as easy for Gardner Minshew.
Over 6.5 receptions is currently priced anywhere from -122 to -140, but even the higher figure is not a high cost to bear, given how frequently Pittman has consistently surpassed that tally this year.
My best bet: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 6.5 receptions (-122 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Colts vs Bengals same-game parlay
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 6.5 receptionsColts +1.5Tanner Hudson Over 24.5 receiving yards
+507 at FanDuel
While the spread has flipped for this game, I’m going against the line movement and backing the road team here. While quarterback Jake Browning looked fantastic for Cincinnati last week, this is a sell-high spot for the backup. Additionally, the Bengals have a far worse defense than Indy, ranking 26th in defensive EPA and 31st in success rate.
While I’m not expecting another 354-yard performance from Browning, I do expect him to hook up with tight end Tanner Hudson for at least 25 yards. Despite only gaining 18 receiving yards in Browning’s initial start, he still managed to receive five targets and complete four catches in that Week 12 game.
In fact, that clash against the Steelers has been the only time in the last five games that Hudson has posted fewer than 33 receiving yards. With the Colts having a tough time covering tight ends, expect Hudson to eclipse his low receiving yards total.
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